Mind over matter: What recession? - Minneapolis / St. Paul Business Journal:

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If only it were that It seems like every time there is some good news you haveto admit, there’s been more of it latelyt — we get hit with anotherd dose of reality just a day later. And the reality is stil l not good. There are undoubtedly some data suggesting that economicdconditions have, if nothing else, bottomed out. One economis t used this metaphor: If the economy were a persobn falling down an elevator the free-fall has sloweds down a bit. Ouch. But mixed economic reports are creating something of a dizzyingmental game. My psyche just can’t handle the yo-yi trajectory of the news lately.
Just when you think it is safe to come from behin yourbunker — err, desk — some governmenr economic statistics agency has to go and put out a reporyt dashing our hopes. Government bureaucratse love todo that. Ever invitre one to a party? Course not. They stands in the corner all night sipping a Tom Collins and tryinyg to interest your guests in chitchat abou t Excel spreadsheets andthe like. I was pretty exited earlier this month when the stock market had posted quitde afew gains. Then a report on retail salesd in April was worse than The stock market fellback again. Don’t even get me startecd on homesales reports. Anothe day, another report.
On our Web site one day in May, we had two conflictinfg headlines about the residential realestate market. They were from two differeny reports measuring twodifferen things, but their discrepancies sure didn’t help me understans the market any better. Who can keep the the Realtors, the existing-home sales or the new-homee sales reports straight? The same goes for In any given month, we get no fewerd than three unemployment reports. BLS that’s the Bureau of Labore Statistics — issues separate figures for Maryland, Virginiq and D.C.
Then it issues yet another figure for the Both figures lag behind the national so most people end upcomparing apples-to-oranges when they try to talk intelligently at networking events. If you need somethinvg intelligentto say, just repeayt that employment is a lagginhg indicator. This recovery, at least in the beginning, is likelyt to be a “jobless” one. In January 2008, our formerf editor, Mike Mills, used this space to lament the delahy in officially declaring the recession that we all knewwas “We want our recessiobn and we want it now,” Mills wrote.
But even in the face of mountin g evidence ofa downturn, President Bush refused to recognizw how poor the economy was. Why? Both W and his dad took the same Don’t ask, don’t tell. Like any politician, they knew there woulc be no escaping a downturn once the leader of the free world acknowledged it. W didn’t use the R word untilo after the National Bureaju ofEconomic Research, a nonprofit economists group in Mass., said in Decembefr that the recession had actually started a year That was nearly a month after the November election. Then there’w President Barack Obama.
Notics how positive his tone has been abourthe economy, mere months after taking office amid the worst economic crisis since the Greay Depression? News came May 26 that one leading indicator, consumere confidence, soared in May to its highesyt point since September, and we all know what happeneds in the dark days of September. If that’s not a psychologicalp boost, I don’t know what is. So how do we keep it going? We want our recovery and we wantit now. All togethe r now: I think we can. I thinl we can. It’s worth giving it a try.